Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 1789 · SMF → DAL
departs 3:22 PM PT · arrives 8:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 25%
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.46 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.