Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1853 · TUL → HOU
departs 1:41 PM CT · arrives 3:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 22%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.