Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 1994 · LAS → RDU
departs 12:17 PM PT · arrives 7:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.