Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 19
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 19 · HOU → MSY
departs 1:11 PM CT · arrives 2:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 23%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
MSY is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.