Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 200
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 200 · RDU → DAL
departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 6:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 32%
Mon 11/16 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.