Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 2012 · OAK → SBA
departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 2:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at SBA that day
↓
Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.49 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.