Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 2109 · STL → BNA
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 5:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 26%
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.