Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 225 · SMF → SNA
departs 1:25 PM PT · arrives 3:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 11/12 19%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 19%
Tue 11/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.59 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.