Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2272
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2272 · MSY → MCO
departs 1:31 PM CT · arrives 4:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 27%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.