Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2276
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2276 · SJC → SNA
departs 11:50 AM PT · arrives 1:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 18%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 17%
Mon 11/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at SJC that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
SJC usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.24 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.