Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2369
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2369 · LAS → OAK
departs 2:13 PM PT · arrives 3:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 11/11 14%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 44%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±14 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.