Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 2386 · SFO → LAS
departs 5:29 PM PT · arrives 7:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 31%
Sun 11/15 52%
Mon 11/16 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
93%
chance · ±5 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
93%
Leave 15+ late
82%
Arrive 1h+ late
75%
Cancelled
18%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
93%
Yes 93%
No 7%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
82%
Yes 82%
No 18%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
6%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
31%
Over 2 hours late
30%
Cancelled
18%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 34 kt
Ceiling 2,700 ft
Visibility 4 mi
Precip 0.58 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.