Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2489
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 2489 · LAX → BWI
departs 1:23 PM PT · arrives 9:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 30%
Sun 11/15 45%
Mon 11/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,467 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.28 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.