Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2515 · LAX → MDW
departs 11:32 AM PT · arrives 5:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 40%
Mon 11/16 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from LAX are often late
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.