Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 2583 · LGA → STL
departs 4:24 PM ET · arrives 6:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 84%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16 46%
Tue 11/17 36%
Wed 11/18 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±9 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.35 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.