Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 2586 · MSY → LAX
departs 3:21 PM CT · arrives 5:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 41%
Sun 11/15 49%
Mon 11/16 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,467 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.