Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 286 · OAK → GEG
departs 12:12 PM PT · arrives 2:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 17%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 21%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.77 in
GEG (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.