Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2916
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2916 · BUR → OAK
departs 11:11 AM PT · arrives 12:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 15%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 13%
Sun 11/15 16%
Mon 11/16 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late
↓
11am departures from BUR are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.07 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.