Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2956 · SJC → SAN
departs 12:26 PM PT · arrives 2:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 32%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 35 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
12pm departures from SJC are usually not late
↓
SJC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 35 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.49 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.