Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 295
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 295 · SMF → AUS
departs 12:21 PM PT · arrives 5:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 34%
Mon 11/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.59 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.