WN 2993 · MDW → PHL

departs 3:46 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.22 in

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2993 · MDW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?