Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3002
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3002 · SAT → MSY
departs 3:26 PM CT · arrives 5:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.