Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3011 · LAX → PHX
departs 1:12 PM PT · arrives 3:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,467 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.28 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.