Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3049
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3049 · SMF → MCI
departs 1:12 PM PT · arrives 6:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±9 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.46 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.