Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3156 · TPA → MSY
departs 4:32 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.