Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3253
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 3253 · TPA → LAX
departs 3:51 PM ET · arrives 6:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 40%
Mon 11/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.