Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 3411 · PDX → SMF
departs 11:16 AM PT · arrives 12:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 13%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 18%
Mon 11/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at PDX that day
↓
PDX usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.27 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.