Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3470 · PHX → OAK
departs 3:26 PM MT · arrives 4:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 61%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 38%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 35%
Tue 11/17 32%
Wed 11/18 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.53 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.