Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3584 · SJC → SAN
departs 1:26 PM PT · arrives 3:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
SJC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.50 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.