Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3628
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3628 · DEN → TUS
departs 3:07 PM MT · arrives 5:17 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 27%
Tue 11/17 30%
Wed 11/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.