Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 3726 · SMF → SAN
departs 3:01 PM PT · arrives 4:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 41%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 52%
Mon 11/16 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.58 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.