Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3826
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 3826 · SEA → LGB
departs 11:21 AM PT · arrives 1:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 34%
Sun 11/15 32%
Mon 11/16 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from SEA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LGB (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.