Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3928
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 3928 · LAX → TUS
departs 10:46 AM PT · arrives 1:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 22%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from LAX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.