Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 4023 · SMF → LGB
departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 2:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15 24%
Mon 11/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at LGB that day
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
↓
12pm departures from SMF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.46 in
LGB (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,467 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.