Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 403
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 403 · LAS → SJC
departs 11:07 AM PT · arrives 12:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 15%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 18%
Mon 11/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at SJC that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.