Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4099
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 4099 · SRQ → BNA
departs 8:36 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 32%
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.