Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4118
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4118 · OMA → PHX
departs 1:41 PM CT · arrives 3:24 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 11/11 12%
Thu 11/12 22%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 22%
Mon 11/16 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.