Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4151
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Today
WN 4151 · BOS → BWI
departs 6:24 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.