Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4158 · STS → BUR
departs 11:07 AM PT · arrives 12:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 15%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 21%
Mon 11/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at STS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
11am departures from STS are usually not late
↓
STS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.69 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.