Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Today
WN 4185 · JAX → BNA
departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from JAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.