Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 424 · SEA → LAS
departs 2:32 PM PT · arrives 4:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 51%
Mon 11/16 44%
Tue 11/17 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±9 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.