Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4354
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4354 · SMF → DEN
departs 12:46 PM PT · arrives 4:11 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 11/11 8%
Thu 11/12 15%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.43 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.