WN 4482 · MDW → JAX

took off 10:27 PM CT · expected to land 1:10 AM ET (scheduled 8:05 PM CT → 11:31 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JAX?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
93%
Over 2 hours late
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4482 · MDW → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?