Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4494 · SAT → HOU
departs 1:08 PM CT · arrives 2:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12 27%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from SAT are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.