Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 450
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 450 · LAS → RNO
departs 12:33 PM PT · arrives 2:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 34%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±14 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 38 kt forecast at RNO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 11,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 38 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.