Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 45
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 45 · LAS → DAL
departs 12:22 PM PT · arrives 5:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.