Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 4684 · SAN → LAS
departs 11:44 AM PT · arrives 1:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.