Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 471 · TUS → PHX
departs 6:05 PM MT · arrives 7:04 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 34%
Mon 11/16 34%
Tue 11/17 21%
Wed 11/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.