WN 4726 · BNA → RDU

departs 7:02 PM CT · arrives 9:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

57% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4726 · BNA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?