Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 472 · PHX → BHM
departs 2:01 PM MT · arrives 6:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.